Frequently Asked Questions

What is a Prediction?

Predictions are the reason this site exists. A good prediction will be an interesting claim regarding an event in the foreseeable future about which reasonable people may have differing views and forecasts.

For more information on predictions, including examples of good ones and bad ones, see the Predictions FAQ page.

What is a Forecast?

A forecast is an estimate of the probability, on a scale of 0 to 100, that a prediction will be true.

You will receive ForeKarma based on the accuracy of your forecast.

For more information on forecasts, see the Forecasts FAQ page.

What is a Judgment?

A judgment states whether a prediction was true or false. Judgments are issued by arbiters (i.e. judges) once the judgment day for a prediction arrives.

For more information on judgments, see the Judgments FAQ page.

What is Karma?

Karma measures the value of your contributions to this site. There are three different flavors of karma, each measuring a different facet of your online repurtation:

  • ForeKarma: accuracy of your forecasts
  • PeerKarma: esteem of your peers
  • CivKarma: support of this site and its community

You can find your karma scores along with a list of the latest awards you received on your user karma page.

For more information on karma, see the Karma FAQ page.

What is a Pundit?

A pundit is any cable news talking head, self-professed expert, or celebrity blowhard who makes public proclamations about the future.

Who qualifies as a pundit? If they have their own Wikipedia page and a history of making public predictions, they're a pundit in our books.

Want to put a pundit on the record? You can add a pundit here and we'll start tracking their forecasts and predictions.

What is Markdown?

Markdown is the formatting syntax that ForeKarma uses for user content fields.

For more information on Markdown and formatting for comments and predictions, see the Formatting FAQ page.